Tools & Demonstrations

Thirty years of pattern recognition, built into working tools.

Kevin doesn't walk into a room with a framework and a whiteboard. He walks in with thirty years of knowing exactly where a trade deal breaks — and the tools below are built directly from that judgment. Every number on this page is either illustrative fixture data (clearly marked) or a real, sourced industry figure. Nothing here is invented to make a pitch look better.

Trade Promotion Audit Dashboard

This is what Kevin's diagnostic finds in a single quarter, for a mid-market manufacturer running five retailer relationships. Illustrative fixture data — Acme Foods Inc., Q1 2026.

Acme Foods Inc. · Q1 2026 · 5 retailers
Audit ledger active · illustrative demo
$4.2M
Total trade spend, Q1
$312K
Leakage detected · 7.4%
$88K
Accrual gaps · 3 open items
$3.8M
Verified clean · 90.5%
90.5% verified clean 7.4% leakage 2.1% accrual gap
Analysis summary: $312,000 in potential leakage identified across two retailers. Kroger and Albertsons both submitted claims exceeding committed amounts by a combined $92,000 — both flagged for dispute. Walmart's promotion submission matches committed spend but lacks compliance documentation; payment should be withheld pending proof of execution. Target has an open accrual of $88,000 not yet booked — requires resolution before period close. Costco closed clean with full documentation on file.

Recommended: (1) Open formal disputes with Kroger and Albertsons — $92K recovery opportunity. (2) Request compliance proof from Walmart before releasing payment. (3) Book the Target accrual before period close.
$218K
Recovered this quarter
$874K
Annual recovery, projected
12×
ROI on audit investment
3 of 4
Disputes prevented

Forward-Buy Exposure

Kevin's live concern right now: when a manufacturer announces a price increase, retailers get a window — often 30–90 days — to buy unlimited volume at the old price. What happens next is where most of the margin disappears. Illustrative fixture data — Blue Harbor Seafood Co., not a real company.

A tariff-driven price increase opens a 90-day window
Illustrative demo
MAR 3
Price increase announced: +9.5%, effective Jun 1 — tariff pass-through on imported tuna.
MAR 3–MAY 31
90-day window open. Retailers may buy unlimited volume at the old price, $28.40/case.
JUN 1
New price live at $31.10/case. Shipments collapse — demand was pulled forward, not created.
JUL–AUG
Promotional deductions arrive against forward-bought inventory — calculated on a price basis nobody documented.
The gap this exposes: Midwest Grocers' $47,900 claim cannot be assessed — no commitment document was ever written for the program in question; the deal was agreed verbally on a call. This is reported as unprovable, not as clean and not as fraud. It is the fourth-largest claim of the period, and there is nothing on record to test it against.

Why this matters right now: tariffs and ingredient inflation mean price increases are frequent and large rather than annual — every announcement opens another forward-buy window, and each window is another accrual nobody can prove. Kevin has watched this exact pattern play out across three decades of price-increase cycles; the tool exists because he already knew where to look for it.

Portfolio-Wide EBITDA Impact

The same math, run across a representative multi-company portfolio — the view a PE sponsor actually needs. Illustrative 10-company portfolio, directional revenue estimates.

Representative PE portfolio · 10 mid-market CPG companies
~$953M combined revenue
~$143M
Portfolio trade spend (15%)
~$14.4M
Leakage identified (10%)
~$10.0M
Recovered annually (70%)
+$10M/yr
Direct EBITDA impact
Conservative
$6.9M
At 5×: +$34M enterprise value
Realistic
$10.0M
At 6×: +$60M enterprise value
Aggressive
$13.7M
At 7×: +$96M enterprise value
The pitch, honestly stated: at a realistic scenario, this discipline recovers roughly $10M annually across a portfolio like this — directly to EBITDA. At a 6× exit multiple, that is $60M in enterprise value left on the table every year without an audit discipline in place. Platform/engagement cost is typically a rounding error by comparison; ROI on the audit investment runs 10×–20× at these recovery rates.

Want this run on your own portfolio, with your own revenue and your own numbers? Use the live calculator or reach out directly.

The tools are Kevin's judgment, made repeatable.

None of the three demos above are generic software. Each one encodes a specific pattern Kevin has seen play out dozens of times across P&G, Ralston Purina, Ralcorp, Dean Foods, and PwC — the retailer that always disputes the same way, the price-increase window that always breaks the same accrual, the portfolio company that always has more leakage than management believes. Thirty-five years of that pattern recognition is the reason these tools ask the right questions instead of merely plausible ones.